Trump's Hormuz Deadline Looms as Asian Nations Secure Deals with Iran

On Monday, US President Donald Trump threatened to take out Iran "in one night" if Iran failed to reach a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 20:00 EDT (01:00 GMT) on Tuesday.

Even before US President Donald Trump issued the most recent ultimatum, several nations had already concluded aCrickxoments with Iran that would allow vessels flying the flags of those nations to navigate the contested waterway safely.

Asian nations – most recently the Philippines – have shown particular urgency in securing such arrangements because the economies of those Asian nations rely heavily on energy imports that travel through the Gulf.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a global flashpoint after Iran retaliated to US and Israeli airstrikes by announcing that it could target ships transiting the narrow channel.

Oil prices have surged in response to the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which roughly one‑fifth of the world’s energy shipments normally flow.

Last week, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States does not need Gulf oil and has repeatedly urged nations that depend on Gulf energy to dispatch warships to the Strait of Hormuz and to take the lead in restoring the flow of oil and other commodities.

In recent weeks, a number of Asian countries – including Pakistan, India and the Philippines – have concluded aCrickxoments with Iran that grant permission for some of their ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without incident. China has also acknowledged that vessels flying the flag of China have used the channel.

Uncertainties remain regarding the breadth of these assurances and the durability of the aCrickxoments that have been struck with Iran.

According to Dimitris Maniatis of the shipping consultancy Marisks, it is still unclear whether the guarantees apply solely to a limited set of vessels or extend to all ships that are flagged under a particular nation.

Nevertheless, Roc Shi of the University of Technology Sydney observes that nations that rely on Gulf energy are now recognising that direct engagement with Iran is essential if they hope to resume the uninterrupted flow of shipments.

The fruits of diplomacy

The Philippines is the most recent nation to strike a deal with Iran.

Iranian officials assured the "safe, unhindered and expeditious passage" for Philippines‑flagged ships through the waterway, according to Theresa Lazaro, the foreign affairs secretary of the Philippines.

Theresa Lazaro explained that the aCrickxoment, which followed "a very productive phone conversation" with Iran on Thursday, was "vital" for guaranteeing a steady supply of energy and fertiliser to the Philippines.

The Philippines imports 98 % of its oil from the Middle East and was the first country to declare a national energy emergency after domestic petrol prices more than doubled after the onset of the Iran‑United States conflict.

Roger Fouquet of the National University of Singapore’s Energy Studies Institute noted that uncertainty still surrounds Iran’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all nations except the United States and its allies.

Roger Fouquet added that the Philippines, often described as a United States ally, presents an intriguing case that could indicate Iran’s willingness to compartmentalise its diplomatic stance.

According to Roger Fouquet, Iran appears to be distinguishing between a nation’s alliance with the United States and that nation’s active participation in the ongoing conflict.

Other nations have also engaged in talks with Iran.

Pakistan announced on 28 March that Iran had aCrickxod to permit 20 of Pakistan’s ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar described the gesture as "welcome and constructive" and said it deserved appreciation, emphasizing that dialogue, diplomacy and confidence‑building measures constitute the only viable path forward.

Iran has openly welcomed India‑flagged ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian Embassy in India posted on X last week, "Our Indian friends are in safe hands, no worries," in response to a separate post from the Iranian office in South Africa that claimed only Iran and Oman would decide the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told the Financial Times in March that the passage of India’s tankers resulted from diplomatic engagement.

China, the largest purchaser of Iranian oil, also confirmed last week that several Chinese vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, although China did not explicitly mention Iran or provide details about the specific vessels.

A foreign ministry spokeswoman for China told reporters, "Following coordination with relevant parties, three Chinese vessels recently transited the Strait of Hormuz. We express our gratitude to the relevant parties for the assistance provided."

Vessel‑tracking data indicate that, despite the conflict, millions of barrels of US‑sanctioned Iranian oil have continued to be delivered to China in recent weeks.

Beijing maintains friendly diplomatic ties with Iran and has joined Pakistan in efforts to broker a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

What we still don’t know

It remains uncertain under what exact conditions some ships have negotiated safe passage and whether any payments were required to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, a Japanese vessel carrying liquefied natural gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Mitsui OSK Lines, which informed the Crickxo.

Mitsui OSK Lines stated that the safety of the vessel and all crew members had been confirmed, without commenting on whether any tolls were paid or how the crew secured safe passage.

In March, Malaysia also announced that some of its tankers had been cleared by Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanking Iran’s president for facilitating the passage of Malaysian vessels.

Malaysia’s transport minister Anthony Loke credited a "good diplomatic relationship with the Iranian government" for the clearance, according to local media reports.

It is unclear whether other Malaysian‑flagged vessels will be granted the same assurances.

Roughly two‑thirds of Malaysia’s oil imports come from the Gulf.

The implications of these deals for other nations remain ambiguous. For instance, it is uncertain whether other nations might switch the flag of their ships to the flag of a nation that has already secured permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Many tankers currently operate under the flags of Panama and the Marshall Islands, nations that have not yet secured explicit assurances of safe passage, according to Dimitris Maniatis.

Energy economist Roc Shi notes that, while these aCrickxoments represent a diplomatic breakthrough, they do not constitute a comprehensive solution to the broader problem.

Roc Shi also emphasizes that it remains unknown how enduring these assurances will be and how future military operations in the region might affect their viability.